Jane Kinninmont
Trump’s big blockade gamble
It’s risky, and Iran has many options to retaliate. Tehran will likely wait and watch, to test US resolve & patience. But if Washington keeps choking Iranian shipping, it also sets up potential confrontation with China
- Jane Kinninmont
- TIMESOFINDIA.COM
Deadline Here, Now What?
War isn’t ending because both US and Iran want to claim victory. To win decisively, Trump needs boots on the ground, but that’s risky. Bombing Iran infra to bits won’t dismantle Iranian regime. Extending deadline again will be read as sign of Trump’s weakness
Trump’s Finding Out Why Bibi’s A Problem
Israel may see advantage in a weaker Iran. But the world has seen before what weak or failing states in West Asia export — insecurity, disruption and spillover
Five Ways The Iran War Can End
Iranian regime may survive or collapse, that’s obvious. But either outcome can, in turn, have multiple results, from confrontation to accommodation, or many things in between. Some scenarios
After Ayatollah…
Does US have a blueprint? Will Iran, stretched to the limits, descend into Syria-like chaos?
Bye Bye Ayatollah? Not So Fast
Foreign intervention may not help Iranian protesters. Many don’t even want it. Trump’s threats and 25% tariff may be self-serving. Change will come if the regime splits. No credible sign of that so far
Analysing what Trump’s strikes mean for Iran
Amidst US mixed signals regarding Iran's nuclear program, potential scenarios range from a deal ensuring IAEA access and halting uranium enrichment to a US/Israeli push for regime change. Despite internal opposition in Iran, a major uprising is absent, complicating external intervention
Ayatollahs May Love The Bomb More
Contrary to what Israel’s telling US, Tel Aviv’s continuing strikes may make Tehran more determined to obtain nuclear weapons. All bets are off
The N-Word Is Back
Trump’s foreign policy has changed strategic calculations about nukes. Many states now see them as the only guarantee of security. But a new nuclear race will be a nightmare
Ayatollah After Assad
For Tehran, the dictator’s ouster may have been unavoidable. But the Iranian regime now sees multiple threats, including the possibility of a stable govt in Syria
Tehran-Tel Aviv terrifying tango
Iran attacked because its moderates lost the argument, thanks to Israeli aggressiveness. But Israel should know its response mustn’t push Iran towards extreme options
Why Putin's challenge is the message more than the mutiny
Wagner’s march to Moscow fizzled out, but it may give other groups in Russia, political or private military, the idea that change at the top is possible
India too has an obligation to prevent Russia from going nuclear
Moscow’s nuclear sabre-rattling confronts the West with tough choices
How to talk Putin into ending the Ukraine war
Without giving him a face-saver, Ukraine-Russia negotiations cannot deliver any peace
Putin wants regime change, even if that means isolation
Russia’s Ukraine endgame may be regime change. And Moscow’s strategy for bigger global role means a new Cold War